Androids and iPhones

With the launch of the Nexus One, there is a lot of talk about whether Android will ultimately beat the iPhone. Lots of very smart people are going both ways on it. Comparisons to the Microsoft / Apple competition of the past have said that Apple will be content to own just a small share of the marketplace, while Android is apparently going to go on to be the Windows for mobile that Windows Mobile should have been.

I think these people are probably right. Despite having an iPhone (and kind of loving it), I do like the idea of an OS that lets you change everything about it. I have gripes with the iPhone settings and apps that can't change (email, contacts, text messages, sound profiles). However, I have to imagine that Apple will one day improve them.

An important advantage the iPhone (the 3GS at least) has for now is that it is noticeably more responsive than any android phone I've used. Again, that probably will change as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, etc get better at design and the suppliers build capacity for the newer chips. Plus, the iPhone software is pretty slick. And, until the hardware manufacturers get better at customizing their android builds to make them as slick, the top of the market will belong to the iPhone.

The first mover advantage of the iPhone is huge as well. It already has a ton of apps, and by being first, it got all the geeks and nerds to adopt it. Mobile apps are generally built for the iPhone first, with Android (and Blackberry) versions following later. That's probably due to the market share of iPhones, but it's a virtuous cycle for Apple (apps beget market share which begets apps) that will be very hard for Google and its partners to bust. Getting the iPhone onto Verizon next year, as rumored, will go a long way to blocking the biggest avenue Android has to reach an untapped audience.

In mobile, since the device is carried all the time, it seems rational to spend a bit more to have the best, rather than accepting second tier. Android will try to, and probably need to, be lower cost at first. I hope that the competition opens up the iPhone OS a bit more, but if it doesn't, hopefully Android will catch up in slickness by the time I'm ready for my next phone.

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